中美关系濒临裂变?这3大原因,中国必须正视!

   净空法师语录   2020-05-18

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169. Don't let yesterday use up too much of today. 别留念昨天了,把握好今天吧。(Will Rogers)170. If you are not brave enough, no one will back you up. 你不勇敢,没人替你坚强。171. If you don't build your dream, someone will hire you to build theirs. 如果你没有梦想,那么你只能为别人的梦想打工。172. Beauty is all around, if you just open your heart to see. 只要你给自己机会,你会发现你的世界可以很美丽。173. The difference in winning and losing is most often...not quitting. 赢与输的差别通常是--不放弃。(华特·迪士尼)174. I am ordinary yet unique. 我很平凡,但我独一无二。175. I like people who make me laugh in spite of myself. 我喜欢那些让我笑起来的人,就算是我不想笑的时候。176. Image a new story for your life and start living it.为你的生命想一个全新剧本,并去倾情出演吧!177. I'd rather be a happy fool than a sad sage. 做个悲伤的智者,不如做个开心的傻子。178. The future belongs to those who believe in the beauty of their dreams. 未来属于那些相信梦想之美的人。(埃莉诺·罗斯福)179. Even if you get no applause, you should accept a curtain call gracefully and appreciate your own efforts. 即使没有人为你鼓掌,也要优雅的谢幕,感谢自己的认真付出。180. Don't let dream just be your dream. 别让梦想只停留在梦里。181. A day without laughter is a day wasted. 没有笑声的一天是浪费了的一天。(卓别林)182. Travel and see the world; afterwards, you will be able to put your concerns in perspective. 去旅行吧,见的世面多了,你会发现原来在意的那些结根本算不了什么。183. The key to acquiring proficiency in any task is repetition. 任何事情成功关键都是熟能生巧。《生活大爆炸》184. You can be happy no matter what. 开心一点吧,管它会怎样。185. A good plan today is better than a perfect plan tomorrow. 今天的好计划胜过明天的完美计划。186. Nothing is impossible, the word itself says 'I'm possible'! 一切皆有可能!“不可能”的意思是:“不,可能。”(奥黛丽·赫本)187. Life isn't fair, but no matter your circumstances, you have to give it your all. 生活是不公平的,不管你的境遇如何,你只能全力以赴。188. No matter how hard it is, just keep going because you only fail when you give up. 无论多么艰难,都要继续前进,因为只有你放弃的那一刻,你才输了。 When Paul Jobs was mustered out of the Coast Guard after World War II, he made a wager with his crewmates. They had arrived in San Francisco, where their ship was decommissioned, and Paul bet that he would find himself a wife within two weeks. He was a taut, tattooed engine mechanic, six feet tall, with a passing resemblance to James Dean. But it wasn’t his looks that got him a date with Clara Hagopian, a sweet-humored daughter of Armenian immigrants. It was the fact that he and his friends had a car, unlike the group she had originally planned to go out with that evening. Ten days later, in March 1946, Paul got engaged to Clara and won his wager. It would turn out to be a happy marriage, one that lasted until death parted them more than forty years later.Paul Reinhold Jobs had been raised on a dairy farm in Germantown, Wisconsin. Even though his father was an alcoholic and sometimes abusive, Paul ended up with a gentle and calm disposition under his leathery exterior. After dropping out of high school, he wandered through the Midwest picking up work as a mechanic until, at age nineteen, he joined the Coast Guard, even though he didn’t know how to swim. He was deployed on the USS General M. C. Meigs and spent much of the war ferrying troops to Italy for General Patton. His talent as a machinist and fireman earned him commendations, but he occasionally found himself in minor trouble and never rose above the rank of seaman.Clara was born in New Jersey, where her parents had landed after fleeing the Turks in Armenia, and they moved to the Mission District of San Francisco when she was a child. She had a secret that she rarely mentioned to anyone: She had been married before, but her husband had been killed in the war. So when she met Paul Jobs on that first date, she was primed to start a new life.Clara, however, loved San Francisco, and in 1952 she convinced her husband to move back there. They got an apartment in the Sunset District facing the Pacific, just south of Golden Gate Park, and he took a job working for a finance company as a “repo man,” picking the locks of cars whose owners hadn’t paid their loans and repossessing them. He also bought, repaired, and sold some of the cars, making a decent enough living in the process.There was, however, something missing in their lives. They wanted children, but Clara had suffered an ectopic pregnancy, in which the fertilized egg was implanted in a fallopian tube rather than the uterus, and she had been unable to have any. So by 1955, after nine years of marriage, they were looking to adopt a child.Like Paul Jobs, Joanne Schieble was from a rural Wisconsin family of German heritage. Her father, Arthur Schieble, had immigrated to the outskirts of Green Bay, where he and his wife owned a mink farm and dabbled successfully in various other businesses, including real estate and photoengraving. He was very strict, especially regarding his daughter’s relationships, and he had strongly disapproved of her first love, an artist who was not a Catholic. Thus it was no surprise that he threatened to cut Joanne off completely when, as a graduate student at the University of Wisconsin, she fell in love with Abdulfattah “John” Jandali, a Muslim teaching assistant from Syria.Jandali was the youngest of nine children in a prominent Syrian family. His father owned oil refineries and multiple other businesses, with large holdings in Damascus and Homs, and at one point pretty much controlled the price of wheat in the region. His mothe凝固的熔岩流。火星上常常有猛烈的大风,大风扬起沙尘能形成可以覆盖火星全球的特大型沙尘暴。每次沙尘暴可持续数个星期。火星两极的冰冠和火星大气中含有水份。从火星表面获得的探测数据证明,在远古时期,火星曾经有过液态的水,而且水量特别大。 [51] 土星是离太阳第六颗行星,直径120536㎞,体积仅次于木星。主要由氢组成,还有少量的氦与微量元素,内部的核心包括岩石和冰,外围由数层金属氢和气体包裹着。地球距离土星13亿公里。土星的引力比地球强2.5倍,能够牵引太阳系内其它行星,使地球处于一个椭圆轨道中运行,并且与太阳保持适当距离,适宜生命繁衍。当土星轨道倾斜20度将使地球轨道比金星轨道更接近太阳,同时,这将导致火星完全离开太阳系。 [52] 土星是已知唯一密度小于水的行星,假如能够将土星放入一个巨大的浴池之中,它将可以漂浮起来。土星有一个巨大的磁气圈和一个狂风肆虐的大气层,赤道附近的风速可达1800千米/时。在环绕土星运行的31颗卫星中间,土卫六是最大的一颗,比水星和月球还大,也是太阳系中唯一拥有浓厚大气层的卫星。 [53] 天王星是离太阳第七颗行星,51118km。体积约为地球的65倍,在九大行星中仅次于木星和土星。天王星的大气层中83%是氢,15%为氦,2%为甲烷以及少量的乙炔和碳氢化合物。上层大气层的甲烷吸收红光,使天王星呈现蓝绿色。大气在固定纬度集结成云层,类似于木星和土星在纬线上鲜艳的条状色带。天王星云层的平均温度为零下193摄氏度。质量为8.6810±13×102?kg,相当于地球质量的14.63倍。密度较小,只有1.24克/立方厘米,为海王星密度值的74.7%。 [54] 恒星 恒星 海王星是离太阳的第八颗行星,直径49532千米。海王星绕太阳运转的轨道半径为45亿千米,公转一周需要165年。海王星的直径和天王星类似,质量比天王星略大一些。海王星和天王星的主要大气成分都是氢和氦,内部结构也极为相近,所以说海王星与天王星是一对孪生兄弟。 [55] 海王星有太阳系最强烈的风,测量到的时速高达2100公里。海王星云顶的温度是-218 °C,是太阳系最冷的地区之一。海王星核心的温度约为7000 °C,可以和太阳的表面比较。海王星在1846年9月23日被发现,是唯一利用数学预测而非有计划的观测发现的行星。 [56] 冥王星,位于海王星以外的柯伊伯带内侧,是柯伊伯带中已知的最大天体。 [57] 直径约为2370±20km,是地球直径的18.5%。 [58] 2006年8月24日,国际天文学联合会大会24日投票决定,不再将传统九大行星之一的冥王星视为行星,而将其列入“矮行星”。大会通过的决议规定,“行星”指的是围绕太阳运转、自身引力足以克服其刚体力而使天体呈圆球状、能够清除其轨道附近其他物体的天体。在太阳系传统的“九大行星”中,只有水星、金星、地球、火星、木星、土星、天王星和海王星符合这些要求。冥王星由于其轨道与海王星的轨道相交,不符合新的行星定义,因此被自动降级为“矮行星”。 [59] 冥王星的表面温度大概在-238到-228℃之间。冥王星的成份由70%岩石和30%冰水混合而成的。地表上光亮的部分可能覆盖着一些固体氮以及少量 卫星拍月球经过地球,可见清晰月球背面 卫星拍月球经过地球,可见清晰月球背面 [60] 的固体甲烷和一氧化碳,冥王星表面的黑暗部分可能是一些基本的有机物质或是由宇宙射线引发的光化学反应。冥王星的大气层主要由氮和少量的一氧化碳及甲烷组成。大气极其稀薄,地面压强只有少量微帕。 [61] 地球是离太阳第三颗行星,是我们人类的家乡,尽管地球是太阳系中一颗普通的行星,但它在许多方面都是独一无二的。比如,它是太阳系中唯一一颗面积大部分被水覆盖的行星,也是目前所知唯一一颗有生命存在的星球。质量M=5.9742 ×10^24 公斤,表面温度:t = - 30 ~ +45。 [62] 英国科研人员在《天体生物学》杂志上报告说,如果没有小行星撞击等可能剧烈改变环境的事件发生,地球适宜人类居住的时间还剩约17.5亿年,不过人为造成的气候变化可能缩短这一时间。 [63] 彗星是由灰尘和冰块组成的太阳系中的一类小天体,绕日运动。 [64] 科学家使用探测器对彗星的化学遗留物进行分析,发现其主要成份为氨、甲烷、硫化氢、氰化氢和甲醛。科学家得出结论称,彗星的气味闻起来像是臭鸡蛋、马尿、酒精和苦杏仁的气味综合。 [65-66] “67P/楚留莫夫-格拉希门克”彗星 “67P/楚留莫夫-格拉希门克”彗星 [67] 在太阳系的周围还包裹着一个庞大的“奥尔特云”。星云内分布着不计其数的冰块、雪团和碎石。其中的某些会受太阳引力影响飞入内太阳系,这学说,在原有的轨道(或称小天体轨道)上又增加了更多的天体运行轨道。这一模式称每颗行星都沿着一个小轨道作圆周运行,而小轨道又沿着该行星的大轨道绕地球作圆周运动。几百年之后,这一模式的漏洞越来越明显。科学家们又在这个模式上增加了许多轨道,行星就这样沿着一道又一道的轨道作圆周运动。 哥白尼想用“现代”(16世纪的)技术来改进托勒密的测量结果,以期取消一些小轨道。在长达近20年的时间里,哥白尼不辞辛劳日夜测量行星的位置,但其测量获得的结果仍然与托勒密的天体运行模式没有多少差别。 哥白尼想知道在另一个运行着的行星上观察这些行星的运行情况会是什么样的。基于这种设想,哥白尼萌发了一个念头:假如地球在运行中,那么这些行星的运行看上去会是什么情况呢?这一设想在他脑海里变得清晰起来了。一年里,哥白尼在不同的时间、不同的距离从地球上观察行星,每一个行星的情况都不相同,这是他意识到地球不可能位于星星轨道的中心。 经过20年的观测,哥白尼发现唯独太阳的周年变化不明显。这意味着地球和太阳的距离始终没有改变。如果地球不是宇宙的中心,那么宇宙的中心就是太阳。的发现才使牛顿有能力确定运动定律和万有引力定律。 哥白尼的日心宇宙体系既然是时代的产物,它就不能不受到时代的限制。反对神学的不彻底性,同时表现在哥白尼的某些观点上,他的体系是存在缺陷的。哥白尼所指的宇宙是局限在一个小的范围内的,具体来说,他的宇宙结构就是今天我们所熟知的太阳系,即以太阳为中心的天体系统。宇宙既然有它的中心,就必须有它的边界,哥白尼虽然否定了托勒玫的“九重天”,但他却保留了一层恒星天,尽管他回避了宇宙是否有限这个问题,但实际上他是相信恒星天球是宇宙的“外壳”,他仍然相信天体只能按照所谓完美的圆形轨道运动,所以哥白尼的宇宙体系,仍然包含着不动的中心天体。但是作为近代自然科学的奠基人,哥白尼的历史功绩是伟大的。确认地球不是宇宙的中心,而是行星之一,从而掀起了一场天文学上根本性的革命,是人类探求客观真理道路上的里程碑。 哥白尼的伟大成就,不仅铺平了通向近代天文学的道路,而且开创了整个自然界科学向前迈进的新时代。从哥白尼时代起,脱离教会束缚的自然科学和哲学开始获得飞跃的发展。哥白尼的科学成就,是他所处时代的产物,又转过来推动了时代的发展。 顺应时代变化 十五、六世纪的欧洲,正是从封建社会向资本主义社会转变的关键时期,在这一二百年间,社会发生了巨大的变化。14世纪ndali soon after. She held out hope, she would later tell family members, sometimes tearing up at the memory, that once they were married, she could get their 别让梦想只停留在梦里。181. A day without laughter is a day wasted. 没有笑声的一天是浪费了的一天。(卓别林)182. Travel and see the world; afterwards, you will be able to put your concerns in perspective. 去旅行吧,见的世面多了,你会发现原来在意的那些结根本算不了什么。183. The key to acquiring proficiency in any task is repetition. 任何事情成功关键都是熟能生巧。《生活大爆炸》184. You can be happy no matter what. 开心一点吧,管它会怎样。baby boy back.Arthur Schieble died in August 1955, after the adoption was finalized. Just after Christmas that year, Joanne and Abdulfattah were married in St. Philip the Apostle Catholic Church in Green Bay. He got his PhD in international politics the next year, and then they had another child, a girl named Mona. After she and Jandali divorced in 1962, Joanne embarked on a dreamy and peripatetic life that her daughter, who grew up to become the acclaimed novelist Mona Simpson, would capture in her book Anywhere but Here. Because Steve’s adoption had been closed, it would be twenty years before they would all find each other.Steve Jobs knew from an early age that he was adopted. “My parents were very open with me about that,” he recalled. He had a vivid memory of sitting on the lawn of his house, when he was six or seven years old, telling the girl who lived across the street. “So does that mean your real parents didn’t want you?” the girl asked. “Lightning bolts went off in my head,” according to Jobs. “I remember running into the house, crying. And my parents said, ‘No, you have to understand.’ They were very serious and looked me straight in the eye. They said, ‘We specifically picked you out.’ Both of my parents said that and repeated it slowly for me. And they put an emphasis on every word in that sentence.”Abandoned. Chosen. Special. Those concepts became part of who Jobs was and how he regarded himself. His closest friends think that the knowledge that he was given up at birth left some scars. “I think his desire for complete control of whatever he makes derives directly from his personality and the fact that he was abandoned at birth,” said one longtime colleague, Del Yocam. “He wants to control his environment, and he sees the product as an extension of himself.” Greg Calhoun, who became close to Jobs right after college, saw another effect. “Steve talked to me a lot about being abandoned and the pain that caused,” he said. “It made him independent. He followed the beat of a different drummer, and that came from being in a different world than he was born into.”Later in life, when he was the same age his biological father had been when he abandoned him, Jobs would father and abandon a child of his own. (He eventually took responsibility for her.) Chrisann Brennan, the mother of that child, said that being put up for adoption left Jobs “full of broken glass,” and it helps to explain some of his behavior. “He who is abandoned is an abandoner,” she said. Andy Hertzfeld, who worked with Jobs at Apple in the early 1980s, is among the few who remained close to both Brennan and Jobs. “The key question about Steve is why he can’t control himself at times from being so reflexively cruel and harmful to some people,” he said. “That goes back to being abandoned at birth. The real underlying problem was the theme of abandonment in Steve’s life.”Jobs dismissed this. “There’s some notion that because I was abandoned, I worked very hard so I could do well and make my parents wish they had me back, or some such nonsense, but that’s ridiculous,” he insisted. “Knowing I was adopted may have made me feel more independent, but I have never felt abandoned. I’ve always felt special. My parents made me feel special.” He would later bristle whenever anyone referred to Paul and Clara Jobs as his “adoptive” parents or implied that they were not his “real” parents. “They were my parents 1,000%,” he said. When speaking about his biological parents, on the other hand, he was curt: “They were my sperm and egg bank. That’s not harsh, it’s just the way it was, a sperm bank thing, nothing more.”Silicon ValleyThe childhood that Paul and Clara Jobs created for their new son was, in many ways, a stereotype of the late 1950s. When Steve was two they adopted a girl they named Patty, and three years later they moved to a tract house in the suburbs. The finance company where Paul worked as a repo man, CIT, had transferred him down to its Palo Alto office, but he could not afford to live there, so they landed in a subdivision in Mountain View, a less expensive town just to the south.There Paul tried to pass along his love of mechanics and cars. “Steve, this is your workbench now,” he said as he marked off a section of the table in their garage. Jobs remembered being impressed by his father’s focus on craftsmanship. “I thought my dad’s sense of design was pretty good,” he said, “because he knew how to build anything. If we needed a cabinet, he would build it. When he built our fence, he gave me a hammer so I could work with him.”Fifty years later the fence still surrounds the back and side yards of the house in Mountain View. As Jobs showed it off to me, he caressed the stockade panels and recalled a lesson that his father implanted deeply in him. It was important, his father said, to craft the backs of cabinets and fences properly, even though they were hidden. “He loved doing things right. He even cared about the look of the parts you couldn’t see.”His father continued to refurbish and resell used cars, and he festooned the garage with pictures of his favorites. He would point out the detailing of the design to his son: the lines, the vents, the chrome, the trim of the seats. After work each day, he would change into his dungarees and retreat to the garage, often with Steve tagging along. “I figured I could get him nailed down with a little mechanical ability, but he really wasn’t interested in getting his hands dirty,” Paul later recalled. “He never really cared too much about m189. It requires hard work to give off an appearance of effortlessness. 你必须十分努力,才能看起来毫不费力。190. Life is like riding a bicycle.To keep your balance,you must keep moving. 人生就像骑单车,只有不断前进,才能保持平衡。(爱因斯坦)191. Be thankful for what you have.You'll end up having more. 拥有一颗感恩的心,最终你会得到更多。192. Beauty is how you feel inside, and it reflects in your eyes. 美是一种内心的感觉,并反映在你的眼睛里。(索菲亚·罗兰)193. Friendship doubles your joys, and divides your sorrows. 朋友的作用,就是让你快乐加倍,痛苦减半。194. When you long for something sincerely, the whole world will help you. 当你真心渴望某样东西时,整个宇宙都会来帮忙。echanical things.”“I wasn’t that into fixing cars,” Jobs admitted. “But I was eager to hang out with my dad.” Even as he was growing more aware that he had been adopted, he was becoming more attached to his father. One day when he was about eight, he discovered a photograph of his father from his time in the Coast Guard. “He’s in the engine room, and he’s got his shirt off and looks like James Dean. It was one of those Oh wow moments for a kid. Wow, oooh, my parents were actually once very young and really good-looking.”Through cars, his father gave Steve his first exposure to electronics. “My dad did not have a deep understanding of electronics, but he’d encountered it a lot in automobiles and other things he would fix. He showed me the rudiments of electronics, and I got very interested in that.” Even more interesting were the trips to scavenge for parts. “Every weekend, there’d be a junkyard trip. We’d be looking for a generator, a carburetor, all sorts of components.” He remembered watching his father negotiate at the counter. “He was a good bargainer, because he knew better than the guys at the counter what the parts should cost.” This helped fulfill the pledge his parents made when he was adopted. “My college fund came from my dad paying $50 for a Ford Falcon or some other beat-up car that didn’t run, working on it for a few weeks, and selling it for $250—and not telling the IRS.”The Jobses’ house and the others in their neighborhood were built by the real estate developer Joseph Eichler, whose company spawned more than eleven thousand homes in various California subdivisions between 1950 and 1974. Inspired by Frank Lloyd Wright’s vision of simple modern homes for the American “everyman,” Eichler built inexpensive houses that featured floor-to-ceiling glass walls, open floor plans, exposed post-and-beam construction, concrete slab floors, and lots of sliding glass doors. “Eichler did a great thing,” Jobs said on one of our walks around the neighborhood. “His houses were smart and cheap and good. They brought clean design and simple taste to lower-income people. They had awesome little features, like radiant heating in the floors. You put carpet on them, and we had nice toasty floors when we were kids.”Jobs said that his appreciation for Eichler homes instilled in him a passion for making nicely designed products for the mass market. “I love it when you can bring really great design and simple capability to something that doesn’t cost much,” he said as he pointed out the clean elegance of the houses. “It was the original vision for Apple. That’s what we tried to do with the first Mac. That’s what we did with the iPod.”Across the street from the Jobs family lived a man who had become successful as a real estate agent. “He wasn’t that bright,” Jobs recalled, “but he seemed to be making a fortune. So my dad thought, ‘I can do that.’ He worked so hard, I remember. He took these night classes, passed the license test, and got into real estate. Then the bottom fell out of the market.” As a result, the family found itself financially strapped for a year or so while Steve was in elementary school. His mother took a job as a bookkeeper for Varian Associates, a company that made scientific instruments, and they took out a second mortgage. One day his fourth-grade teacher asked him, “What is it you don’t understand about the universe?” Jobs replied, “I don’t understand why all of a sudden my dad is so broke.” He was proud that his father never adopted a servile attitude or slick style that may have made him a better salesman. “You had to suck up to people to sell real estate, and he wasn’t good at that and it wasn’t in his nature. I admired him for that.” Paul Jobs went back to being a mechanic.His father was calm and gentle, traits that his son later praised more than emulated. He was also resolute. Jobs described one examplWhat made the neighborhood different from the thousands of other spindly-tree subdivisions across America was that even the ne’er-do-wells tended to be engineers. “When we moved here, there were apricot and plum orchards on all of these corners,” Jobs recalled. “But it was beginning to boom because of military investment.” He soaked up the history of the valley and developed a yearning to play his own role. Edwin Land of Polaroid later told him about being asked by Eisenhower to help build the U-2 spy plane cameras to see how real the Soviet threat was. The film was dropped in canisters and returned to the NASA Ames Research Center in Sunnyvale, not far from where Jobs lived. “The first computer terminal I ever saw was when my dad brought me to the Ames Center,” he said. “I fell totally in love with it.”Other defense contractors sprouted nearby during the 1950s. The Lockheed Missiles and Space Division, which built submarine-launched ballistic missiles, was founded in 1956 next to the NASA Center; by the time Jobs moved to the area four years later, it employed twenty thousand people. A few hundred yards away, Westinghouse built facilities that produced tubes and electrical transformers for the missile systems. “You had all these military companies on the cutting edge,” he recalled. “It was mysterious and high-tech and made living here very exciting.”In the wake of the defense industries there arose a booming economy based on technology. Its roots stretched back to 1938, when David Packard and his new wife moved into a house in Palo Alto that had a shed where his friend Bill Hewlett was soon ensconced. The house had a garage—an appendage that would prove both useful and iconic in the valley—in which they tinkered around until they had their first product, an audio oscillator. By the 1950s, Hewlett-Packard was a fast-growing company making technical instruments.Fortunately there was a place nearby for entrepreneurs who had outgrown their garages. In a move that would help transform the area into the cradle of the tech revolution, Stanford University’s dean of engineering, Frederick Terman, created a seven-hundred-acre industrial park on university land for private companies that could commercialize the ideas of his students. Its first tenant was Varian Associates, where Clara Jobs worked. “Terman came up with this great idea that did more than anything to cause the tech industry to grow up here,” Jobs said. By the time Jobs was ten, HP had nine thousand employees and was the blue-chip company where every engineer seeking financial stability wanted to work.The most important technology for the region’s growth was, of course, the semiconductor. William Shockley, who had been one of the inventors of the transistor at Bell Labs in New Jersey, moved out to Mountain View and, in 1956, started a company to build transistors using silicon rather than the more expensive germanium that was then commonly used. But Shockley became increasingly erratic and abandoned his silicon transistor project, which led eight of his engineers—most notably Robert Noyce and Gordon Moore—to break away to form Fairchild Semiconductor. That company grew to twelve thousand employees, but it fragmented in 1968, when Noyce lost a power struggle to become CEO. He took Gordon Moore and founded a company that they called Integrated Electronics Corporation, which they soon smartly abbreviated to Intel. Their third employee was Andrew Grove, who later would grow the company by shifting its focus from memory chips to microprocessors. Within a few years there would be more than fifty companies in the area making semiconductors.The exponential growth of this industry was correlated with the phenomenon famously discovered by Moore, who in 1965 drew a graph of the speed of integrated circuits, based on the number of transistors that could be placed on a chip, and showed that it doubled about every two years, a trajectory that could be expected to continue. This was reaffirmed in 1971, when Intel was able to etch a complete central processing unit onto one chip, the Intel 4004, tronic amplifier. “So I raced home, and I told my dad that he was wrong.”“No, it needs an amplifier,” his father assured him. When Steve protested otherwise, his father said he was crazy. “It can’t work without an amplifier. There’s some trick.”“I kept saying no to my dad, telling him he had to see it, and finally he actually walked down with me and saw it. And he said, ‘Well I’ll be a bat out of hell.’”Jobs recalled the incident vividly because it was his first realization that his father did not know everything. Then a more disconcerting discovery began to dawn on him: He was smarter than his parents. He had always admired his father’s competence and savvy. “He was not an educated man, but I had always thought he was pretty damn smart. He didn’t read much, but he could do a lot. Almost everything mechanical, he could figure it out.” Yet the carbon microphone incident, Jobs said, began a jarring process of realizing that he was in fact more clever and quick than his parents. “It was a very big moment that’s burned into my mind. When I realized that I was smarter than my parents, I felt tremendous shame for having thought that. I will never forget that moment.” This discovery, he later told friends, along with the fact that he was adopted, made him feel apart—detached and separate—from both his family and the world.Another layer of awareness occurred soon after. Not only did he discover that he was brighter than his parents, but he discovered that they knew this. Paul and Clara Jobs were loving parents, and they were willing to adapt their lives to suit a son who was very smart—and also willful. They would go to great lengths to accommodate him. And soon Steve discovered this fact as well. “Both my parents got me. They felt a lot of responsibility once they sensed that I was special. They found ways to keep feeding me stuff and putting me in better schools. They were willing to defer to my needs.”So he grew up not only with a sense of having once been abandoned, but also with a sense that he was special. In his own mind, that was more important in the formation of his personality.SchoolEven before Jobs started elementary school, his mother had taught him how to read. This, however, led to some problems once he got to school. “I was kind of bored for the first few year


日前,环球时报总编辑胡锡进呼吁,国家应快速将中国核弹头数量快速提升至千枚以上。



一些人担心,中国增加核弹头数量会导致军备竞赛。在这里想说的是,中国核弹头数量按照公开的数据才320枚,是美俄的几十分之一,哪怕就是美俄的在役的核弹头数量,都是中国的近20倍。



中国要增加近20倍才能赶上美国和俄罗斯服役的规模,请问适当增加核弹头怎么就引发军备竞赛了?难道他们会因为中国把核弹头增加到1000枚而自己追加10000完枚?


对中国来说,美俄的核弹头够毁灭中国n次,他们增加不增加对中国的意义都是一样的,哪有什么军备竞赛的必要?


而对于其他国家而言,中国核弹头的数量现在对他们来说意义都是一样的,这也不可能引发他们的军备竞赛。


所以,以所谓军备竞赛为由来回应增加核弹头的意义,完全不是那么回事。中国是否增加核弹头数量,完全取决于中国自己的科学评估。


美俄的核武规模基本相等,两国对彼此的核威慑叫对称核威慑,中国哪怕适当增加核弹头数量,就是增加到2000枚与美俄差距依然是巨大的,中国和美国也不是对称核威慑。


适当增加核弹头数量,只是中国对美国的有效核威慑,与美国的核武规模依然还是有很大差距,从这个视角,中国增加核弹头数量也不会引发所谓军备竞赛。


而且,由于美国在中国周边不断部署反导系统,甚至还准备把中程导弹直接部署在中国周边,面对这样的部署,中国必须提升核能力,这是国防的需要。


只是,到底是提升核武器的质量还是提升数量,这个需要专家的探讨和政治家的抉择。


不过,客观上说,中国如果采取适当增加核弹头数量的措施来提高核能力,也完全是新时代的国家安全需要,是符合当下逻辑的,怎么某些人不经过探讨就直接无厘头地反对呢?这么不经过思考地反对,完全是美国政府的立场啊!


其实,老胡提出增加核弹头数量,其背景是中美博弈已经到了裂变的边缘。中国官方已经明确表态,中美关系到了十字路口。到了十字路口啥意思?就是再发展下去,两国关系就可能演变为敌对大过合作的关系了。


在中美关系有发展到了十字路口之际,在中美关系有可能进入敌对的情况下,


我们是不是应该考虑美国对中国的核威慑能力?


是否应该增加自己的防御以及核反击能力?


这些道理,应该是和尚头上的虱子嘛!



关于中美关系有进入裂变的风险,提出三点与大家商榷:


一、美国已把中国列为最大的战略竞争对手


特朗普一上台,就把中国列为最大的战略竞争对手,这已经体现在了很多份白宫或五角大楼的重要文件里。


美国对中美关系的战略定位、美国的国家属性,决定了中美关系接下来必然很艰难,并且风险也很大。


但是,要维护中美关系不是中国一方的一厢情愿,需要中美双方的共同努力,尽量不要产生误判。


但现在的问题是,美国对中国越来越极端,咄咄逼人,中国退无可退。在这种情况下,中国当然应该采取措施。


二、甩锅是特朗普现阶段最好的竞选手段


特朗普一定会甩锅中国。其中的核心原因,并不在于他们真的认定了中国应该负责,而是他们认定了操弄中国责任论对他们有百利而无一害。


一方面,根据民调数据,美国民众已经有7成左右反华了,这让特朗普政府认为,只要甩锅给中国,就能迎合美国的民粹主义情绪,就能获得选票。


客观上,特朗普之前的这种操作也起到了相应的效果,所以特朗普才会越来越咄咄逼人。


另一方面,不断甩锅给中国,可以减少白宫在抗疫问题上的责任,毕竟美国的疫情是全球最严重的,特朗普政府也的确没什么作为,把责任甩给中国在舆论上也更加有利于自己,而现在看却看不到任何不利于自己的东西。


在这种情况下,想让特朗普不甩锅是不可能的,这是美国的民意情绪现实和特朗普竞选的需要决定的,除非中国有什么事让美国彻底忌惮,否则美国甩锅的步伐会不断加快。


三、中国抗疫做得太好影响了美国的权威,特朗普政府必然采取措施对冲


虽然我们自己在不断总结经验教训和得失,但与全球其他国家相比,中国抗疫做得是最卓越的。


中国不但自己抗疫取得战略性成果,更援助了150多个国家、地区和国际组织,还为全球提供了大量质优价廉的抗疫物资。就像美国前国务卿基辛格所说的那样,中国的影响力无疑提升了。


相比中国,美国在抗疫上无所作为,甚至已成全球疫情的“震中”,在国际上不但没有为任何国家提供帮助,甚至还强抢他国抗疫物资。


客观上说,美国在这次全球抗疫事件中没有扮演任何领导者的角色,相反中国反而看起来更像一个领导者。


在这种情况下,美国肯定会觉得是中国影响了他的权威,因此也就必然通过污名化来打压中国,并以此来达到对冲中国影响力提升的目的。

面对这三点现实,中国人是必须正视的,不是说我们希望中美关系好中美关系就能好,恰恰相反,在美国政府咄咄逼人的大背景下,中国太过隐忍缺乏反制,不但不能维护好中美关系,还会破坏中美关系。


事实上,在美国得寸进尺不断施压的情况下,中国不可能不采取反制和威慑,那么中国在最初显得让步越多,之后采取的反制和威慑的压力越大,最后采取的措施强度也就会越强,中美关系因此最终产生误判的概率就越大。


而且,中国让步越多,在后面应对美国时就会越被动,国家损失也就会越大。


如果我们不能正视上述三点,就无法深刻认识和理解美国咄咄逼人的原因,也不知道他们这么做的目的是什么,当然也就无法做出有效的判断与回应。


就像老胡增加核弹头的建议,为啥导致一些中国人反而产生了焦虑?其本质就是从心理上惧怕美国,担心友邦惊诧。其实,这种心态本身就会使得我们更被动,会诱发美国更强的投机心理,会更容易引发战略误判。


其实,现在的情况是,在美国的咄咄逼人下,中美关系真的濒临裂变。


很多人觉得,美国不会赖掉中国的债务,这件事情是不可能发生的。正常情况下当然这是不可能发生的,但现在并非正常情况。


首先,美国经济遇到了极大困难,爆发新一轮债务危机的风险正在加大,而一旦疫情进一步失控后,美国真的爆发债务危机,在全球不再可能像2008年那样搞G20救市的情况下,美国必然会采取极其强烈的措施来应对危机。


印钞是一种方式,但难以长期持续,铤而走险抢劫他国是完全可能的。那么,赖账就是一种新的抢劫方式。


其次,赖掉对中国的债务,对美国来说国内最大的阻碍来自美国的一系列法律,最大的风险来自美国国家在国际上的信誉风险。


但所有的法律都是可以修改的,哪怕是真的有法律障碍,以特朗普的行事风格,只要他认为需要的事,他都能通过修改法律、强推绕过等方式来操作,在这方面不要低估特朗普的行动力。


其三,美国如果赖掉中国的债务当然会在信誉上对其构成打击,但所谓的信誉本质上是靠实力,只要美国用一个看起来冠冕堂皇的理由来操作,在实践中哪怕短期内对美国的信誉构成损失,也并不能真的撼动美元的霸权地位。


这背后的逻辑其实很简单,国际贸易、各种金融投资结算离不开美元,西方发达经济体没人敢挑战美国,全球的贸易投资都离不开美元,所以哪怕短期内美元有一些信誉损失,也不影响美元的全球地位,因为全球范围内没有能真正替代美元的货币。


而且,美国在当完强盗之后,也还是可以对信誉进行适当修复,或者在西方发达经济体内强行推动相关政策来保持美元的稳定。


事实上,美国只要有能力去灭掉任何一个挑战者,理论上美国的金融霸权就会继续存在,并不会因为美国真的赖掉了中国的债务,美元体系就立刻崩塌。


当年美国在1970年代操作美元与黄金脱钩,影响美元信誉了吗?美元到现在不还是准时接货币吗?


美元体系坍塌的风险,源于美国赖账之后的中美激烈对抗,以及全球经济的紊乱,那意味着全球大范围的对立将可能使得全球经济陷入崩溃,从而最终反过来影响美元。


但,就现在特朗普的视角而言,他根本不在乎这些,他在乎的只是连任,所以他很可能会为了自己的连任利益而放弃思考美国的长远利益。


因此,低估美国政府赖掉中国债务的可能性是不妥当的。面对美国,中国一方面要去尽力维护争取最好的结果,但同时更要做好最坏的打算,以免一旦特朗普政府突破我们的底线措手不及。


事实上,美国政府正在炮制甩锅中国的报告,报告出台后,接下来就会推进对中国的索赔。美国政府和共和党如果发起针对中国索赔计划,美国民主党如果在国会阻挡,特朗普就会倒打一耙,说民主党是袒护中国。


在美国当前民意正在走向极端民族主义的背景下,民主党为了选票很可能也会放行,何况如果真的能打劫中国,民主党也能分到利益啊!这一关一旦过了,美国就会继续推动法理上的索赔合法化,并为此不惜推动修改法律。


美国索赔,中国肯定不干,在美国手上有中国持有的美国国债,那么特朗普政府为了讨好选民和背后支持的财阀,打中国国债的主意是完全可能的。一旦走到那一步,中美关系就真的彻底撕裂了。


中美关系一旦真的进入全面对抗状态,那么最终拼得是什么?就是看谁拳头大和谁的拳头硬,实际上最终拼的就是军事力量。


而在军事力量的对比中,战略核力量的对比就是最后的底线,国家军力比到最后就是比核力量。


所以,我们现在面对的局面,就是中美比拳头已经快比到了战略核力量方面,如此大家也就应该明白,这个时候提高中国的战略核能力是多么重要了吧!


大国较量,已经越发凶险,中美关系已经走在十字路口。


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